This is one of the easier divisions in which to predict a winner. It is pretty much San Diego and 3 pretty bad teams. I (along with everyone else who knows anything) will be totally shocked if a team other than San Diego wins the AFC West this year. But lets see how KC, Denver, and Oakland will shake out.
#1 San Diego Chargers – You won’t hear much argument about the Chargers winning the AFC West this year. They have the best QB, bet RB, best defense, and overall are easily the best team in the AFC West.
Phillip Rivers had a tremendous year last year with over 4000 yards passing, 34 TDs, only 11 picks, and a QB rating of 105.5. With numbers like that it is hard to see how the Chargers lost 8 games. It would be one thing if Rivers had a ton of yards but a bunch of INTs also but he didn’t. If he can repeat that performance this year the Chargers could be one of the top 3 or 4 teams in the league.
Yeah, LaDainian Tomlinson is 30 which is the age where most RBs start to decline and he did see his lowest yardage, TDs, and yards per carry since his rookie year but I think he still has another decent year or two left in him. He hasn’t put up any 400 carry seasons that seem to kill running backs and with Darren Sproles there to take some of the carries this year the San Diego running game should be in good shape.
Their receivers (Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson, Malcom Floyd, etc.) don’t jump off the page but when you add in Antonio Gates and LT and Sproles out of the backfield the passing attack gets very dangerous.
Jamal Williams, Shawne Merriman (if he can stay out of trouble), Shaun Phillips, Quentin Jammer, and Antonio Cromartie lead a very strong defense. There are no real weaknesses on this team. It isn’t super deep if there are any major injuries but assuming everyone stays healthy this should be the top defense in the AFC West.
BTW, just an interesting note: Denver and San Diego both finished with 8-8 records last year. San Diego outscored its opponents by 92 points. Denver was outscored by 78.
Predicted record: 11-5
#2 Denver Broncos – It is tough to pick between the Chiefs, the Raiders and the Broncos. But as sad as it is I think I would trust Kyle Orton to run my team over JaMarcus Russell or Matt Cassell. Orton still isn’t a good QB but he might just be good enough. The biggest edge he has over the others is experience. He has started or played in quite a few games over the past 3 years and while he will probably never be a 4000 yard, 30 TD guy as long as he can cut down on his interceptions a bit he will be OK.
Ryan Clady is one of the best young tackles in the league and he will help get the running game going. It wouldn’t suprise me if the Broncos don’t have a 1000 yard rusher but they could have 4 guys go over 500 yards. Peyton Hillis, Correll Buckhalter, and LaMont Jordan are all solid and rookie Knowshon Moreno looks like he could be a top notch RB in the next couple years.
Eddie Royal had a tremendous rookie season and if Brandon Marshall can stop crapping his pampers and play some football that gives Orton two very good receivers to throw to.
The Denver defense was terrible last year so it can only get better. Champ Bailey is still one of the best cover corners in the league but he will need some help from the front 7. I don’t think this was the right time for the Broncos to switch to the 3-4. That defense can only work well if you have a good nose tackle and the Broncos don’t have that.
Overall I haven’t been impressed with how Josh McDaniel has handled his first off-season as coach. He is acting like he is Bellichek but he hasn’t even coached a game yet. Pissing off Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall was a big mistake. He needs to prove himself a bit before he can do stuff like that. But I am not excusing Cutler or Marshall’s behavior.
Predicted record: 4-12
#3 Kansas City Chiefs – In a couple years I can see the Kansas City Chiefs being better than the Raiders or Broncos but this will be another rough year. The Chiefs have put all their eggs in the Matt Cassel basket and that could be a mistake. He did pretty good with New England but he had a much better supporting cast. I think the Cheifs would have been better served giving Tyler Thigpen and Brody Croyle a chance. If that didn’t work out they could always get a good QB in the draft next year.
Larry Johnson is probably on the downside of his career but Jamaal Charles has shown some spark when he has gotten a chance and I expect to see him get 100-150 carries this year to take some of the load off Johnson.
Dwayne Bowe is a very good young receiver and Bobby Engram is a very good old receiver. Beyond those two Cassel will have trouble finding anyone to throw to. I can see the offense really struggling this year.
If Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey can live up to where they were selected in the draft the Chiefs could have one of the best pairs of D-ends in the league. But Dorsey didn’t do much last year and I don’t expect much more from Jackson. The rest of the D looks to be on the low side of mediocre as well.
Predicted record 3-13
#4 Oakland Raiders – It is time for Al Davis to give up control of all football related decisions to someone else. His draft choices, free agent signings, and coaching hires have all been pretty terrible the past couple years. Come on Al. Swallow your pride and let someone who knows what they are doing build a winner here.
The strong point of this team is probably the running backs. Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas, and Michael Bush have all produced when given the chance and Louis Rankin looked very good in preseason.
JaMarcus Russell is just a couple bad games away from fully earning a “bust” label and I don’t expect much more from him this year. Partially because he just isn’t that good and partially because he doesn’t have any one to throw the ball to. If Russell gets to 3000 yards this year and if any of his receivers (Darrius Heyward-Bey, Chaz Schilens, Johnnie Lee Higgens, and Javon Walker only combined for 42 catches last year) sniff 1000 yards I will be very suprised.
Nnamdi Asomugha is by far the best player on this defense. Kirk Morrison is solid at linebacker and if Richard Seymour ever decides he wants to play football this year he will be a big upgrade on the line but the rest of the D isn’t good.
Predicted record 2-14
